journal6 ›› 2007, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (1): 73-76.

• 物理与电子 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于DDA方法的滑坡稳定性预测

  

  1. ( 1.中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南 长沙 410083;2.大连大学材料破坏力学数值试验研究中心,辽宁 大连 116622;3.东北大学岩石破裂与失稳研究中心,辽宁 沈阳 110004)
  • 出版日期:2007-01-25 发布日期:2012-06-19
  • 作者简介:宫凤强(1979-),男,山东临朐人,博士生,主要从事岩土工程稳定性、灾害性分析及应用的研究;李夕兵(1962-),男,湖南宁乡人,“长江学者”特聘教授,博导,主要从事岩石力学、岩土与采矿工程灾害控制研究.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目(50490274,10472134);中南大学2005年米塔尔创新创业资助项目(05M002)

The Prediction Study of the Stability of Lanslide Based on DDA Method

  1. (1.School of Resources and Safety Engineering,Central South University, Changsha 410083,China;2.Research Center for Numerical Tests on Material Failure,Dalian University,Dalian 116622,Liaoning China;3.Center for Rock Instability and Seismicity Research, Northeastern University,Shenyang  110004,China)
  • Online:2007-01-25 Published:2012-06-19

摘要:应用距离判别分析(DDA)方法,将影响滑坡失稳的外形特征、滑面特征等4项内在因素和河流作用、暴雨强度等5项外在因素作为判别因子,建立了滑坡稳定性预测的距离判别分析模型.以国内典型滑坡工程发生失稳的实测资料作为学习样本进行训练,建立相应判别函数,对待判样本进行预测.结果表明距离判别分析模型预测性能良好,预测精度高,回判估计的误判率为零,是滑坡稳定性预测的一种有效方法,可以在实际工程中进行推广应用.

关键词: 滑坡, 稳定, 预测, 距离判别分析

Abstract: Based on the principle of Mahalanobis distance discriminant analysis,a stability predictive model of landslide is established in this paper,including nine indexes reflecting the stability of landslide:configurational character,slip surface character,the shear strength of slip soils,latest activities (intrinsic factor) and potamic effect,rainstorm intensity,posterior load,engineering activities,earthquake  effect (exterior factor).Discriminant functions are obtained through training a large set of lanslide engineering in three Gorges zone.The evaluated results show that the prediction model of distance discriminant analysis excellent performance and the resubstitution rate is zero.This is a new method to predict the stability of landslide and can be used in practical lanslide engineering.

Key words: landslide, stability, prediction, distance discriminant analysis

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