关键词： 国内能源消费, ONGM (1,1, k)模型, 灰色预测模型, 背景值, 时间响应函数

Abstract: In order to explore the future development trend of domestic energy consumption in China,an optimized NGM(1,1,k) model is developed to study domestic energy consumption in China.The proposed model is applied to the case of China's domestic energy consumption with 2 other grey prediction models respectively,and five indicators commonly used to evaluate the performance of prediction models are used to make comparison.The results of the cases show that the optimized NGM(1,1,k) model shows the best performance in the applied cases,thus confirming the feasibility and validity of the model.At the end of the paper,the metabolic idea is introduced into the proposed model to make a reasonable prediction of China's domestic energy consumption in the next 10 years.

Key words: domestic energy consumption, ONGM (1,1,k) model, grey prediction model, background values, time response function