journal6 ›› 2011, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (4): 35-38.

• Mathematics • Previous Articles     Next Articles

ARIMA Model Prediction and Analysis of H1N1 Epidemic Situation in Canada in 2009


  1. (1.School of Mathematics and Computer Science,Jishou University,Jishou 416000,Hunan China;2.School of Mathematics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China)
  • Online:2011-07-25 Published:2012-04-07

Abstract: At the beginning of the year of 2009,H1N1 influenza outbreak took place throughout the world.According to the epidemic situation in 2009 in Canada,this paper establishes an appropriate ARIMA model in order to achieve a daily prediction of H1N1 pandemic.After a positive analysis,the absolute error of the prediction is less than 11%;while the total average error is 8.39%.This model successfully predicts the disease of Canada in 2009.

Key words: ARIMA model, H1N1 epidemic situation, prediction;Canada;time series analysis

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