Abstract:

As the theoretical defect of grey Verhulst model,this article proposed that let nth component ofX(1) be the initial condition based on the optimized background value,and established improved grey Verhulst model based on the background value and initial value.Applied example show that this improved grey Verhult model somehow abolish the error caused by selection in the background value and initial value,has the higher simulation precision and applied value.

Key words: grey Verhulst model, background value, initial value, improve