关键词： 空间灾害性扰动, 数值预报, 六步法

Abstract: The prediction of disastrous space weather is a hot topic among solar-terrestrial physics and high technological fields. We propose that the future forecasting of the physical conditions that the violent solar disturbance causes at the earth by propagating in solar wind depends heavily on the numerical method.This paper analyses the existing problems we are facing in the numerical prediction of disastrous disturbance events in solar-terrestrial space, and then gives some suggestions for future study. For such a purpose, a six step solution method is developed to deal with one-dimensional symmetric interplanetary shock dynamics. It should be point out that that initial ization of fully self-consistent 3-D MHD codes considering the solar-interplanetary- geomagnetic coupled relations with initial-boundary values at 1R of the global output of solar plasma and magnetic field using available solar observations is an essential requirement in space weather operational codes for forecasting purposes.

Key words: disast rous events in solar- terrestrial space, numerical prediction, six step solution method